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TOGGLE Insight - Bitcoin (Jan 11, 2022)

You’ve definitely heard of this coin, or at least someone you know owns it and/or is trying to convince you to buy crypto as well. Sometimes known as digital gold (because of its supposed hedge against inflation) is now back on the news after falling 40% from its all time high, primarily due to its large institutional investor base and the fear of rising rates. $BTC seems to be following the overall macro environment and investors are asking themselves, “Is this the right time to buy?”


TL;DR


Recently, on January 7th, TOGGLE published an insight about $BTC, showing that entry point indicators for Bitcoin are oversold. Based on Bitcoin’s historic performance, TOGGLE’s AI identified that this may lead to a median decrease of -6% over the following 1M, as shown in the chart below. This insight got a 6 out of our 8-star rating system (more on that later)



How did TOGGLE come up with this?

TOGGLE uses the power of machine learning and artificial intelligence to analyze data and turn it into easy-to-read insights that you can use to help your decision-making. For this particular insight, TOGGLE's AI analyzed 7 similar occasions in the past to help identify this insight's median projection and confidence band.


The dotted line you see is the expected path, which is based on similar instances in the past. The shaded area represents a confidence band, and Bitcoin's price typically stays within those boundaries if the asset performs like it did in the past. The flat, solid green line indicates where TOGGLE expects the asset to reach. Last but not least, the flat red line is a possible stop-loss level, the point at which $BTC has deviated too far from the expected path and you should reevaluate your position.


How reliable are these insights?

Well, that's up for you to decide. TOGGLE uses an 8-star rating system, which evaluates the same stats that institutional investors like to look at when managing money professionally. We ask questions that determine if these conditions have happened before, how accurate they've been, and how frequent they've occurred, and more. This insight received a 6 out of 8 on our star rating system (as seen below), and this encompasses the robustness of the relationship between the driver and subsequent price action.



While crunching the numbers, TOGGLE also studied momentum drivers and detected a consistent relationship between drivers and the subsequent asset movement. The chart below highlights the times in the past when the drivers (specifically momentum) were at a similar level as right now. For this insight, TOGGLE’s AI identified 7 different times, or “episodes,” when a similar set-up has happened in the past. Of those episodes, TOGGLE found that 85% of those resulted in a downward move over a 1M horizon, which helped form this insight.



So, how do I use this info?

Ultimately, what sets TOGGLE apart is that when it comes to investing, we won’t tell you what to do, but we’ll be here to give you the fullest picture to help you trade with confidence. We recommend reading the full insight here to get the complete picture, and better guide your decision-making.


Want access to more insights and info like backtests, fundamentals, historical occurrences? We got you. Find all of that on toggle.ai. TOGGLE Copilot subscriptions start at $9.99 a month, but you can get your first month free, no credit card required.