New Orders PMIs
PMIs are surveys that ask companies “How is business going compared to last month, better or worse?” via a questionnaire made of several questions - how is business, are you hiring, are prices rising, etc….The acronym means “Purchasing Manager Index”.
The PMI for each question is expressed as the % of companies that reply “better”. New Orders PMIs in particular are the index built around the question “Is new business coming in better or worse than last month?” and are oftentimes leading the rest of the PMI complex.
New Order PMIs are the fastest gauge of trend for an industry or a whole economy. Since they are released at the beginning of the month for the previous month, they provide a much timelier alternative to GDP.
Generally high New Orders mean an economy that is doing well and low new orders mean an economy that is doing poorly.
Citi Economic Surprises
Citi Economic Surprises is a long-standing series published by Citi’s FX research department to gauge whether the economy is “beating expectations” of economic forecasters - this is very much the concept of a company beating analyst expectations, applied to a whole economy.
Several economic indicators are included in the basket and the weights are based on the impact that economic surprises have on FX crosses.
Economic surprises are meant to be used mostly in FX trading, but most investors use them to gauge whether the economy is on an uptrend or downtrend for broader economic allocation.
Citi Inflation Surprises
Citi Inflation Surprises is a long-standing series published by Citi’s FX research department to gauge whether inflation is “beating expectations” of economic forecasters - this is very much the concept of a company beating analyst expectations, applied to a whole economy.
Inflation surprises provide a gauge of inflation’s trend and are regarded by Currency and Treasury traders as a way to build expectations for Central Bank actions.