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Daily Brief - The Friday Edition (Jan 7, 2022)

The 10 days ahead: TOGGLE Leading Indicator

The TOGGLE Leading Indicator is the aggregated indicator of all TOGGLE insights for stocks in the US market


The leading indicator has plunged into bearish territory two days before the Jan 5th dip and remains there even now.



Guide to reading this dashboard

  • Top-left chart: SPX overimposed over colouring based on the TLI, blue = bullish and red = bearish

  • Top-right chart: scatter plot of the TLI (x-axis) vs the performance of SPX 12 days forward (y-axis), with the current level of the TLI shown as a dashed orange line

  • Bottom-left chart: orange area chart is the 2-week change in price of the S&P 500, dark grey line is the TOGGLE leading indicator, shifted to the right by 2 weeks

  • Bottom-right chart: Analysis of led-forward correlation of TLI vs the return of SPX


Important disclaimer: you can see for yourself that the correlation between the TLI and SPX was far from 1:1, so use at your own discretion. Past performance is not indicative of future returns!


Upcoming at TOGGLE

Every week we’ll be sharing a sneak peek of exciting new feature releases.


What to expect for 2022 at TOGGLE?


2022 will be a big one for TOGGLE.


A brief preview of what you can expect next includes a new, enhanced set of insights that will be fresh each day and will help you understand what’s relevant for any security and why it is relevant.


Here’s a sneak peek



General Interest - Beer is losing against Liquor in the US

Every week we endeavour to bring you one high quality article post from around the internet, of general interest.


During lockdown, private consumption of food and alcohol skyrocketed. Unable to drink and eat in bars and restaurants, people upped their cooking / bartending game..


The boom in private consumption might have hid a deep cultural shift in alcohol consumption: beer is losing to liquor.



In this fascinating article from the WSJ (no paywall), Saabira Chaudhuri describes the fight for the marginal dollar of the American drinker.


Beer has long been the beverage of choice in the US, but consumers have brought it close to the tipping point: in a short few years, spirits will overtake beer if the trend of the last 25 years can be trusted.


The attack of the liquor industry against brewers is two-pronged.


On the one side, there’s a lobbying effort to equalize taxes on beer and liquor, if the alcoholic content is equivalent. Beer taxes are 2% of spirit ones, and lobbying efforts aim to remove this for spirit-based cocktails with less than 10% alcoholic content.


On the other side, spirit-makers are leaning heavily on canned cocktails: from Spritz to Moscow Mule, cocktails come in beautiful canned containers that provide expediency and taste. The new packaging is a resounding success with customers.



Trained bartenders can rest at ease however - the charm of a hand-made cocktail will stand the test of time.